Somalia stands at a critical crossroads as escalating global crises dismantle the very systems that once offered a buffer for vulnerable nations.
The deepening unrest in the Middle East, combined with the threat of expanding geopolitical involvement alongside the ongoing war in Ukraine, is amplifying the collapse of a global system already under immense pressure.
As international cooperation fractures under the weight of overlapping emergencies, Somalia finds itself increasingly exposed to the ripple effects of disrupted supply chains, inflation, and shrinking support from abroad.
For over three decades, Somalia has operated within an aid-based model. In 2022, the country received nearly 1.94 billion US dollars in official development assistance, accounting for more than 30 percent of its GDP in 2023, according to OECD and World Bank data.
However, domestic food production remains limited. In 2024, Somalia produced only 127,000 tones of cereals, nearly 18 percent below the five-year average. This output covered just 20 percent of the national per capita cereal requirement. The remainder depends on increasingly expensive imports, made harder to obtain by rising global instability.
The international community, once the main pillar of Somalia’s humanitarian and political support, is now pulling back. Global aid budgets fell by 7 percent in 2024.
The United States, through USAID, previously covered about 65 percent of Somalia’s aid portfolio. Its recent funding cuts forced the closure of nutrition centers and left over 55,000 Somali children at immediate risk of severe malnutrition, according to humanitarian reports from late 2024.
This is not just a humanitarian concern. It is a strategic turning point. Somalia can no longer afford to rely on external lifelines that are clearly weakening. The responsibility now lies with national actors, including the Federal Government, Federal Member States, and opposition leaders, to treat these challenges not as long-term development goals but as urgent national priorities.
The path forward must begin with rebuilding domestic capacity in agriculture, livestock, and fisheries, while also developing strategies to harness Somalia’s natural resources. These include oil, gas, minerals, solar energy, and marine wealth.
Reducing reliance on global markets requires responsible local initiatives and sustained political stability. It also calls for coordinated national policy, clear priorities, and stronger trust between citizens and state institutions. Local actors such as universities, civil society, and the private sector must lead rather than wait for donor-driven solutions.
Somalia’s position outside direct global battlefields presents a narrow but valuable opportunity to focus inward. However, neutrality without preparedness is not a strategy. It simply increases vulnerability.
The future of Somalia’s food security, political stability, and economic survival now depends more on the choices made at home than on the hope of help from abroad.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa.
