In Washington’s corridors, it is often said that there are two major issues in Somalia that cannot be resolved without U.S. involvement—or at least without its green light. The first is Somalia’s unity, and the second is the question of oil and gas. These two files remain central to any strategic calculation between Mogadishu and Washington and must guide Somalia’s approach in every engagement with the United States.
Somalia’s Unity
For more than three decades, the United States has been the most influential external actor shaping the Somali state’s post-conflict order. From its recognition of the Federal Government in 2013 to its coordination of international assistance through the United Nations, the African Union, and the Bretton Woods institutions, Washington’s fingerprints are visible on nearly every major reform effort in Somalia.
U.S. policy has consistently tied support to Somalia’s commitment to federalism, reconciliation, and constitutional development. This influence extends beyond diplomacy to the financial architecture that sustains Somalia’s government. Any lasting settlement regarding power-sharing between Mogadishu and the federal member states—or dialogue over Somaliland—requires at least tacit U.S. endorsement. In practice, Washington’s position often determines whether political initiatives gain momentum or collapse under competing interests.
Oil and Gas
The second issue—the oil and gas sector—reveals how Somalia’s economic future intersects with global power dynamics. The country’s offshore basins along the Indian Ocean hold promising reserves, but progress has been slow due to insecurity and investor caution.
Here, too, the United States wields considerable influence. Most major energy companies operate within U.S.-linked financial systems, and their risk calculations depend on American regulatory and diplomatic signals. The dollar’s dominance in international markets and Washington’s ability to shape investment norms make its approval—or disapproval—a decisive factor in unlocking Somalia’s hydrocarbon potential.
At the same time, the Horn of Africa sits at the crossroads of vital global trade and energy routes. For the U.S., maintaining influence in Somalia is not merely about economics; it is a matter of maritime security and strategic balance in a region contested by China, Russia, and Turkey. American engagement thus offers Somalia not just capital, but stability and credibility.
The Strategic Imperative
For Somali policymakers, acknowledging this reality is essential. U.S. influence over Somalia’s unity and energy sectors is not a constraint—it is a strategic fact. By understanding where American leverage lies, Somalia can negotiate from a position of clarity and mutual respect rather than dependency.
The path forward demands diplomacy anchored in realism: Somalia must safeguard its sovereignty while recognizing that sustainable political unity and responsible resource management cannot advance in isolation from Washington’s role.
The United States still holds significant keys to Somalia’s future. What matters now is how wisely Somalia chooses to use them.
