Mogadishu (Dawan Africa) – Former Somali National Security Adviser Hussein Sheikh-Ali has warned that Ethiopia’s growing ambitions in the Horn of Africa represent a continuation of its historic “imperial posture,” raising concerns about Somalia’s sovereignty and regional stability.
In an article published on Wednesday, Hussein linked Ethiopia’s controversial 2024 memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Somaliland to a long-standing strategy of projecting dominance beyond its borders. He argued that while Ethiopia no longer pursues territorial expansion through military conquest, it has shifted to political maneuvering, economic leverage, and foreign alliances.
“In January 2024, Ethiopia nearly broke Somalia’s sovereignty without firing a shot. A single memorandum of understanding with Somaliland — now paused — exposed Addis Ababa’s willingness to redraw the Horn of Africa’s political map and Mogadishu’s inability to stop it,” Hussein wrote.
The former adviser said Somalia’s weak institutional response to the MoU underscored its vulnerability, warning that Addis Ababa has perfected the art of exploiting Somalia’s internal divisions. He noted that Ethiopia continues to present itself as a stabilizing force while simultaneously undermining its neighbors’ territorial integrity.
Beyond Somalia, Hussein identified risks to Djibouti and Eritrea, warning that Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea port access could diminish Djibouti’s economic leverage and heighten Eritrean security fears, threatening broader regional stability.
He concluded that without stronger governance and unity, Somalia remains dangerously exposed.
“Somalia complains; Ethiopia calculates. The danger is not only that Somalia loses ground, but that this loss becomes an accepted regional norm,” Hussein cautioned.
Ethiopia signed a controversial memorandum of understanding with Somaliland in January 2024, offering potential port access in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence. The move sparked outrage in Mogadishu, which said the deal violated Somalia’s sovereignty. Though implementation has stalled, the agreement exposed Somalia’s weak diplomatic capacity and highlighted Ethiopia’s growing regional ambitions.
