Opinion - Ruto Courts ODM as Fragmented Opposition Searches for Unity

Kenya, 29 December 2025 - President William Ruto’s growing engagement with ODM leaders and renewed focus on the Nyanza region is reshaping Kenya’s political terrain at a moment when the opposition remains divided and uncertain about its path to relevance.

Recent opinion polls help explain why the President is reaching across the aisle — and why opposition unity talks have become increasingly urgent.

According to the latest Infotrak poll, the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) leads with 23% national support, followed by the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at 19%.

Other parties trail far behind: Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) stands at 6%, Jubilee Party at 5%, and Wiper Patriotic Front at 4%.

Earlier surveys by TIFA mirror the same structure, consistently identifying UDA and ODM as the only parties with significant national reach, while the rest remain stuck in single-digit territory.

The numbers reveal two critical dynamics. First, despite UDA’s lead, no party commands overwhelming dominance on its own. Second, ODM remains the only opposition formation with the scale and organisational depth to challenge the ruling coalition nationally. This reality appears to be informing Ruto’s strategy.

The intensified move to court ODM leaders and again his intensifying development and political outreach in Nyanza, shows the President is not simply seeking regional goodwill.

He is effectively engaging the only political force capable of mounting a credible challenge to his coalition in 2027.

A working relationship — formal or informal — between UDA and ODM would fundamentally alter the balance of power, potentially creating a political bloc commanding over 40% of national support.

Such a scenario would leave the rest of the opposition severely weakened. Even combined, DCP, Jubilee, Wiper and smaller parties would struggle to match the weight of ODM alone, let alone a UDA–ODM alignment.

This is why opposition unity talks have intensified in recent months, with leaders increasingly acknowledging that fragmentation is a strategic liability.

However, forging a united opposition remains easier said than done. The smaller parties face challenges of leadership rivalry, regionalism and overlapping ambitions.

While unity could theoretically produce a more formidable force against the ruling coalition, current polling suggests that even a consolidated opposition would still face an uphill battle unless it secures ODM’s participation or support.