Visa Projects Stable Economic Expansion in 2026 Despite Structural Shifts

Kenya, January 15 2026 - isa is projecting moderate but stable global economic expansion in 2026, while warning that headline growth figures hide major transformations underway in how the world economy functions.

In its newly released 2026 Global Economic Outlook, Visa forecasts global GDP growth of 2.7%, a slight slowdown from the estimated 2.9% in 2025. Despite the modest deceleration, the company stresses that the global economy is undergoing deep structural change, driven by rapid advances in artificial intelligence, reconfigured trade relationships, and evolving investment priorities.

According to the report, generative AI is emerging as a central force reshaping productivity and business models across industries. At the same time, companies are reorganizing supply chains to be more regional and resilient, while aging populations in many economies are influencing long-term growth potential.

Consumer activity is expected to remain relatively strong, with spending projected to rise 2.4% in 2026, though this marks a slower pace compared to the previous year. Inflation is also forecast to continue easing, falling from 3.4% to 3.1%, offering some relief to households after years of elevated prices.

While consumer demand shows signs of cooling slightly, Visa anticipates a notable increase in business investment, particularly in AI-related infrastructure. Reduced policy uncertainty and the need to modernize operations are pushing companies to spend more, supporting business-to-business payments and commercial activity.

The outlook also points to a significant shift in global trade dynamics. Roughly two-thirds of global trade growth is now occurring within regions rather than across continents, as firms respond to geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and risk management strategies by shortening and diversifying supply chains. This trend is contributing to increased business travel,especially in technology and resource-based industries and a faster recovery in cross-border commercial payments compared to domestic corporate transactions.

One of the report’s most striking insights is the speed at which small businesses are adopting AI tools. Visa’s transaction data shows that smaller firms are integrating AI faster than consumers, and those using AI are seeing stronger transaction growth. These technologies are enabling small teams to operate at a much larger scale, potentially redefining what it means to be a small business in the digital economy.