By Benadeta Mwaura - Reporter
Kenya, 31 December 2025 - Africa’s oil story in 2025 was a complex tapestry, stretching from established giants like Nigeria and Angola to rising frontier states preparing to enter the export stage.
The continent maintained roughly 8% of global crude supply, cushioning global flows even as markets faced oversupply pressure.
With prices at multi-year lows, oil producers were forced to evaluate resilience, diversify revenue streams, and accelerate downstream value creation.
Nigeria remained the continent’s heavyweight, producing around 1.5 million barrels per day despite theft, pipeline sabotage challenges and reform delays.
Yet 2025 was different. The Petroleum Industry Act continued to open regulatory space for investment, and the Dangote Refinery reached significant operational capacity, finally positioning Nigeria to reduce its long-standing refined-fuel import bill.
Gas infrastructure, particularly the AKK corridor, is expected to be linked by early 2026, promising industrial growth and energy reliability.
Investors circled upstream assets as the government pursued divestitures and joint developments, signalling a future anchored in restructuring and efficiency.
Angola held firmly to its second-tier global presence.
Offshore rigs remained the nation’s lifeblood, producing around 1.1 million bpd.
After exiting OPEC in 2024, Luanda enjoyed the flexibility to raise output without quota restrictions, luring global majors into deepwater exploration blocks.
Even with reliance on hydrocarbons, diversification plans slowly gained clarity, cushioning the country from Brent swings.
Libya stood as Africa’s paradox, possessing over 48 billion barrels in reserves, yet tethered to instability.
Output hovered near 1.3 million bpd when fields were secure, but sporadic militia interference and pipeline shutdowns exposed vulnerability.
The year reminded the world how fragile high-output states can be without unified governance.
In North Africa, Algeria balanced oil production of approximately 900,000 bpd with robust natural-gas exports into Europe, an energy bridge that softened the blow of low crude pricing.
The dual-resource structure shielded revenues better than other producers and positioned Algeria strategically in an energy-transitioning world.
Smaller producers also carved space. Congo advanced a new partnership deal with Qatar to expand offshore capacity, while Gabon showcased new licensing blocks and fiscal reforms at African Energy Week 2025, signaling room for new investment.
Both nations maintained steady output at several hundred thousand barrels daily, anchoring themselves as dependable mid-tier exporters.
Namibia, While not yet among the largest producers in 2025, Namibia continues drawing attention as a potential future heavyweight oil nation, with offshore discoveries estimated at billions of barrels. Industry expectations suggest substantial growth if final investment decisions are executed in 2026–2027.
Senegal/Ivory Coast & Other Basins, Projects such as the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG and other offshore discoveries in West Africa position Senegal and Mauritania as important future contributors to regional energy supply.
Toward the East African heartland, Uganda emerged as one of the continent’s most watched energy stories, not yet exporting crude, but building toward future dominance.
The East African Crude Oil Pipeline advanced beyond 60% completion during the year, forging a 1,443 km artery to Tanzania’s Tanga Port.
The signing of a $4 billion refinery development deal with UAE-based Alpha MBM Investments marked a bold pivot, not just to export crude, but to refine it and sell higher-value products across the region.
First oil shifted to mid-2026 projections, but the foundation of an oil-industrial ecosystem is already forming.
Where the continent’s oil story grows complicated is Sudan and South Sudan.
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South Sudan, rich but fragile, pumped roughly 180,000–200,000 bpd, relying overwhelmingly on oil for state income.
Its crude can only reach the sea through infrastructure in Sudan, a nation whose domestic production sits below 30,000 bpd after losing 75% of its reserves in the 2011 split.
Conflict between SAF and RSF repeatedly threatened pipeline corridors through 2025, forcing South Sudan to navigate a political minefield as it fought to keep exports flowing. Each shutdown reminder: pipelines matter as much as barrels.
Sudan itself has become more pipeline guardian than producer.
Ravaged by war, investment-shy, and struggling to restore damaged infrastructure, it remains a critical passageway, not a supply titan.
Stability, whenever it comes, will decide whether Sudan reclaims lost ground or remains only a transit state for its younger neighbour.
Africa’s energy landscape is shifting, but its future remains heavy with potential. Namibia’s offshore discoveries, Senegal and Mauritania’s LNG plays, and Ivory Coast deep-water prospects are cultivating the next generation of producers.
Africa’s major crude producers, Nigeria, Angola, Libya, Algeria, Congo, Gabon and South Sudan, rely heavily on export markets, sending more than 70–85% of their crude abroad.
Most shipments historically flowed to Europe, China, India and the U.S., but 2025 marked another year of shifting trade routes shaped by price pressures, refinery demand and geopolitical realignments triggered by sanctions on Russia and changing energy security policies.
West African crude, particularly Nigerian Bonny Light and Angolan Cabinda blends, remained highly attractive to Asian refiners due to their sweet, low-sulphur quality, which makes them cheaper to process.
China and India, now the world’s largest crude importers, absorbed a significant portion of African barrels through 2025, with Indian refiners increasing purchases as they sought alternatives amid fluctuating Russian supply discounts. Europe retained a fair share of North African exports, especially from Algeria and Libya, supported by short shipping routes across the Mediterranean and the continent’s urgent need to diversify away from Russian energy.
Trade patterns, however, did not come without challenges. Production interruptions plagued Libya and South Sudan, where militia clashes, pipeline vandalism and political instability regularly forced shutdowns.
Even short disruptions triggered shipment delays and revenue losses, underscoring how fragile oil logistics remain in conflict zones. In Nigeria, oil theft in the Niger Delta, pipeline tapping and illegal refining contributed to output volatility, despite reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act.
Angola, though more stable, faced natural production declines from ageing deepwater fields, forcing the government to aggressively court investment to boost recovery rates and exploration.
Global price weakness weighed heavily across producer economies.
With Brent averaging near $60–$63 per barrel in late 2025, African states that rely on oil for up to 70–90% of export revenue, such as South Sudan, Angola and Nigeria, grappled with budget tightening, delayed energy projects, and reduced foreign exchange inflows.
Refinery upgrades and local-processing ambitions gained momentum as governments sought to keep more value within their borders rather than exporting crude and reimporting refined fuel at higher prices.
Logistics also influenced 2025 trade dynamics.
Longer shipping distances to Asia compared with Europe raised freight costs, making Middle Eastern crude cheaper for Asian buyers and forcing African producers to offer competitive pricing.
Weather patterns in the Atlantic, including periods of heavy swells, slowed tanker scheduling during peak seasons, impacting West African loading windows.
Yet despite headwinds, African oil remained central to global supply, especially for countries seeking to balance Middle Eastern and Russian imports with diversified sourcing from the continent.
Africa sold most of its crude to Asia (China, India), Europe (particularly southern refineries), and pockets of North America, but production was tested by conflict, field decline, oil theft, low prices and competition from discounted Russian barrels. Still, with new frontier discoveries in Namibia and growing investment interest, Africa’s long-term relevance to the global oil market remains firmly intact.
The continent stands at a pivotal moment: with the right infrastructure, governance, and transition strategy, Africa could rise beyond exporter status to become a refining, petrochemical and LNG powerhouse.
As the world watched oil prices slump in 2025, African producers weathered the storm, some with reforms, some with hope, some with infrastructure bets that will mature over a decade. The continent is not just supplying crude; it is redefining its energy identity.
