Babu Owino Tops Poll as Potential Successor to Raila Odinga – Survey | Dawan Africa

By Kepher Otieno - Reporter

Kenya, 28 December 2025 - The latest opinion poll has placed Embakasi East MP Babu Owino at the forefront of discussions on the future of Luo leadership, positioning him as the most preferred successor to the late Raila Odinga.

According to the survey, Owino commands the support of 33% of respondents, significantly ahead of Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga, who garnered 10%.

Other figures, including Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and Siaya Governor James Orengo, trailed further behind, with 7% and 4% respectively, while a notable 37% of those surveyed said they were undecided.

The results underscore both the prominence of Owino as a youthful and outspoken figure and the continuing uncertainty about the direction of leadership within the community.

Officials involved in the survey noted that the poll was intended to capture perceptions of leadership influence rather than formal succession within political party structures.

They emphasised that the findings reflect evolving expectations among voters, particularly in the wake of Raila Odinga’s passing, which has created a vacuum in the community’s political hierarchy.

The survey suggests a generational shift in preferences, with younger voters gravitating toward leaders who are seen as dynamic and willing to challenge traditional political norms, while established figures maintain institutional recognition.

While Owino leads in the succession question, the poll also highlights a significant gap between regional influence and national electoral appeal.

When asked about a hypothetical presidential contest, only seven percent of respondents said they would support him, illustrating that his popularity within the Luo community does not yet translate into broader national competitiveness. This distinction points to the challenges he would face if he sought higher office beyond his regional base, emphasizing the difference between being a community leader and a nationwide political figure.

The findings reveal complex dynamics within the Luo political landscape.

Although Owino’s prominence signals growing support among younger and more activist voters, a large portion of the electorate remains undecided, suggesting that no single figure has yet consolidated overwhelming support.

This open space leaves room for negotiations, alliances, and strategic positioning as political actors consider the post-Odinga era.

The uneven distribution of support also reflects variations in regional loyalty, highlighting that even within historically aligned communities, political preferences are far from uniform.

For the political party historically led by Odinga, the survey underscores the challenge of balancing continuity with emerging leadership.

Established figures like Oburu Oginga retain institutional influence, but the rise of new actors such as Owino demonstrates that public sentiment may not always align neatly with party hierarchies.

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This tension between loyalty to traditional leadership and the appeal of youthful, outspoken politicians could shape internal debates and strategic choices ahead of the 2027 general election.

Analysts interpreting the survey point to a broader trend of political realignment in Kenya, with generational considerations increasingly influencing voter behavior.

The prominence of a younger leader in succession discussions indicates that Kenyan politics is entering a phase where established hierarchies are being questioned and new forms of leadership are emerging.

At the same time, the significant undecided vote highlights the fluidity of public opinion and the potential for rapid shifts as political campaigns intensify.

The implications of the survey extend to both individual politicians and the broader political landscape.

For Owino, the results provide a narrative boost, reinforcing his relevance and visibility within the Luo community and signaling that he is viewed by many as a credible voice to carry forward the political legacy of Raila Odinga.

For the party and the broader opposition, the findings present both opportunities and challenges: how to harness the energy and momentum of emerging leaders without fracturing established structures, and how to engage with voters whose preferences are evolving rapidly.

As the next general election approaches, the poll serves as an early barometer of changing political alignments and the potential for generational shifts in leadership.

It highlights the tension between historical continuity and the desire for innovation, between regional prominence and national viability.

Political actors will need to navigate these dynamics carefully, balancing loyalty, public perception, and strategic positioning to maintain influence and appeal.

The survey paints a picture of Kenya’s political landscape in transition.

Babu Owino’s ascendancy as a preferred successor reflects the growing impact of youth-driven political energy, changing voter expectations, and the evolving nature of community-based leadership.

At the same time, the undecided vote and limited national support indicate that the landscape is far from settled.

The coming months and years will be critical in determining how these emerging trends translate into realignment within parties, communities, and ultimately, the national political arena.