Ruto Would Win Presidential Race If Elections Were Held Today, Says Infotrak

By Kepher Otieno - Reporter

Kenya, 28 December 2025 - President William Ruto continues to lead in the 2027 presidential race, according to a new nationwide survey by Infotrak, but the poll shows that former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i is emerging as his closest challenger.

The survey indicates a fluid political landscape, with a large number of undecided voters and a fragmented opposition, signaling that the race remains far from settled.

“If elections were held today, President Ruto would still be ahead, but the race is far from decided,” says Angela Ambitho of Infotrak, summarising the survey.

The poll reveals a political landscape that is simultaneously predictable and volatile—while the incumbent commands a solid base, emerging challengers and a large pool of undecided voters hint at a potentially dynamic election.

According to Ambitho, President William Ruto currently enjoys support from just over a quarter of respondents, a figure that underscores both his strength and the limitations of his dominance.

“Ruto’s lead is clear, but it is not insurmountable,” she notes.

Ambitho highlights that roughly a quarter of the electorate remains undecided, making them the true swing voters who could shape the outcome in the months to come.

The survey also spotlights former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i as Ruto’s closest challenger.

With low double-digit support, Matiang’i has emerged ahead of several veteran opposition figures, signaling that voters are open to alternatives beyond the usual political heavyweights.

Ambitho observes, “Matiang’i’s rise reflects growing appetite for a leadership style that emphasizes decisiveness and governance. He is someone voters see as capable of challenging the status quo.”

While the gap between Ruto and Matiang’i is still significant, the trend suggests that a competitive contest is possible, particularly if opposition forces consolidate around him or other emerging leaders.

Trailing Matiang’i are several established opposition figures and younger political aspirants, all polling in similar ranges.

Ambitho points out that this fragmentation weakens the opposition’s immediate prospects but also leaves room for strategic alliances to alter the race.

“The opposition is currently divided, and that works in Ruto’s favour,” she explains.

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“However, the dynamics could change quickly if a coalition emerges around a single candidate.”

The poll also provides insight into party affiliations, showing the ruling party with a narrow edge over opposition formations, yet no party enjoys overwhelming loyalty.

Ambitho emphasises that this reflects Kenya’s competitive, coalition-driven political system, where voter preferences are fluid and responsive to leadership performance and national developments.

“Party loyalty alone will not determine the election; it will be about who can appeal to the undecided voters and build effective alliances,” she says.

Beyond the numbers, the survey suggests broader trends in voter sentiment. Ambitho interprets Matiang’i’s growing support as evidence of a segment of the electorate seeking leadership defined by competence and decisiveness rather than just political pedigree.

“Voters are evaluating performance, credibility, and vision,” she observes.

“This is why new faces or less conventional candidates can make significant inroads, even against incumbents.”

Infotrak survey offers a compelling snapshot of Kenya’s political environment as it stands today.

President Ruto maintains a lead, but the sizeable proportion of undecided voters, the emergence of challengers like Matiang’i, and a fragmented opposition point to a race that remains fluid and unpredictable.

Ambitho underscores that early polling should be seen as indicative, not definitive.

“What we are seeing is a moment in time,” she says.

“The road to 2027 is still wide open, and the next two years will be critical in shaping the final outcome.”