Global Markets Roundup: Commodities, Forex & Crypto in Early 2026

By benadeta mwaura - Reporter

Kenya, January 16 2026 - Gold has remained one of the standout performers as 2026 gets underway, building on a monumental rally that began in 2025. Prices surged above $4,600 per ounce in early trading, a level driven by geopolitical tensions and renewed safe-haven demand. Analysts have tied the rally to risk aversion amid political conflicts and uncertainty in global monetary policy.

A strong bid from central banks accumulating gold reserves and heavy retail inflows into gold ETFs have bolstered prices further. Several major institutions project continued strength throughout 2026, with forecasts even pointing toward $5,000 an ounce or higher by year-end should geopolitical risk persist and real yields stay low.

Gold’s safe-haven appeal has made it a preferred asset for investors seeking shelter from global risks, with ongoing appetite reflected in steady fund inflows into precious metals. Oil: Reactive and Sensitive to Geopolitics Oil prices have traded with heightened volatility early in 2026, shaped by both geopolitical developments and shifting demand outlooks: Brent and WTI crude have bounced back at points, rising over 2% early in January as markets reacted to geopolitical supply concerns.

However, session data show some cooling pressures, with losses as traders weigh demand prospects and inventory dynamics amid an oversupplied oil market. Broader analyses note that U.S. strikes and unrest in producer nations like Venezuela have temporarily stirred risk premiums, while easing fears about wider disruptions have also capped rallies.

Overall, oil remains sensitive to geopolitical headlines and macroeconomic data, but the market’s medium-term direction will hinge on demand signals from China and other major consumers, along with OPEC+ policy decisions. Forex: Dollar Strength, Central Bank Divergence The foreign exchange market has been shaped by central bank policy divergence and shifting risk sentiment: The U.S. dollar has stayed near multi-week highs, supported by stronger economic data and reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Currency traders have also been reacting to mixed signals about global growth, with pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY reflecting monetary policy gaps between the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan. Though detailed major forex pair pricing for example, GBP/USD, USD/JPY isn’t always disclosed in headline reports, broader commentary suggests that the dollar’s safe-haven status, coupled with rate uncertainty, remains a key driver of currency market flows.

The FX space remains one of the most liquid markets globally, with trillions traded daily, and artificial-intelligence-driven analysis tools growing in use as traders navigate price differentials and macro signals. Cryptocurrencies: Consolidation and Risk Aversion Cryptocurrency markets have underperformed relative to traditional safe havens like gold in early 2026, reflecting risk off sentiment and liquidity constraints: Bitcoin has traded in a sideways range near $90,000–$95,000, showing some weakness as liquidity tightens across global financial markets, dampening speculative demand.

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Analysts caution that while Bitcoin broke out of longer downtrends and briefly rallied in late 2025, the crypto market remains vulnerable to bull-trap dynamics, indicating possible corrections if buyers lose momentum. Altcoins have seen similar pressure, with overall crypto market capitalization trailing behind gold and forex in performance and sometimes trailing equities too.

Despite this, some traders and researchers believe a “catch-up rally” could emerge in 2026 if macro conditions improve, such as renewed liquidity, clearer rate paths, or positive regulatory developments in major markets. Comparative Market Signals Equity & Fund Flow Trends: Global equity funds recorded some of their strongest weekly inflows in months, signaling renewed investor confidence in risk assets amid easing inflation expectations.

Commodities Beyond Gold & Oil: Precious metals markets, including silver and copper, have also hit record highs, driven not purely by safe-haven demand but also by industrial demand and supply constraints, particularly in base metals. Intermarket Dynamics: Safe-haven assets like gold continue to attract capital amid global uncertainty, while risk-sensitive markets such as crypto and oil remain closely tied to shifts in liquidity, yield expectations, and geopolitical stability. Meanwhile, the strength of the U.S. dollar remains pivotal, influencing global carry trades, commodity prices, and cross-asset correlations.

Early 2026 markets are being driven by a blend of geopolitical risk, central bank policy divergence and liquidity dynamics: Gold’s surge reflects ongoing risk hedging and reserve diversification amid global tensions and fiscal deficits. Oil’s mixed performance highlights the tug-of-war between supply risk premiums and weaker demand expectations.

Forex markets, especially the U.S. dollar, remain dominant amid global monetary uncertainty. Cryptocurrencies are consolidating, with potential for catch-up if sentiment shifts. Investors continue to balance safe-haven assets gold, dollar against risk assets equities, crypto, with macro indicators and geopolitical newsflow playing outsized roles in shaping short-term price action in early 2026.