By Mohamed Abdi - Reporter
Somalia, 16 January 2026 The Horn of Africa is heading into a sensitive election year in 2026, with Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Somalia expected to hold polls that could significantly influence the region’s political direction and stability.
The anticipated elections come at a time when the region is grappling with overlapping challenges, including security concerns, political disputes, and economic pressures.
Ethiopia
Ethiopia is planning to hold general elections on 1 June 2026 to elect members of the House of People’s Representatives, a process that will determine the leadership of the federal government.
The elections follow earlier delays and the 2021 polls, which were held under difficult security conditions, particularly due to the conflict in Tigray. Although the war has officially ended, ongoing security concerns in the Oromia and Amhara regions continue to raise questions about the smooth conduct of the upcoming vote.
The ruling Prosperity Party currently holds a majority of parliamentary seats, and attention remains focused on how the elections will unfold within Ethiopia’s ethnically based federal system.
Djibouti
Djibouti is also expected to hold a presidential election in 2026, although an exact date has yet to be announced. President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh is widely expected to seek another term.
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The election follows constitutional amendments that removed age limits for presidential candidates a move that was interpreted as paving way for President Guelleh, 78, who has been in office since 1999 to seek another term.
Somalia
Somalia is likewise approaching elections expected in 2026, though uncertainty persists over the electoral model — whether a direct popular vote (one person, one vote) will be implemented or whether the current clan-based political system will continue.
The elections come amid tensions between the federal government and some federal member states. It remains unclear whether the polls will take place this year, largely due to the absence of agreement on the electoral framework, which could lead to delays.
The federal government argues that a one-person, one-vote election is feasible, citing the Banadir regional elections held on 25 December 2025. Opposition groups, however, contend that such a model is not currently practical and insist that consensus must first be reached on the electoral process.
Eritrea
Eritrea, often absent from discussions on elections in the Horn of Africa, has not held public elections since Asmara became its capital in 1993, following the country’s independence from Ethiopia. The state operates under a rigid single-party system, led by President Isaias Afwerki since independence.
The expected elections in Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Somalia are widely seen as pivotal for the political future of the Horn of Africa, given the three countries’ central roles in regional security, trade, and strategic relations across the Red Sea and East Africa.
