ICPAC Warns of Above-Normal Rains in March–May Season Across Horn of Africa

28 January 2026 - Countries across the Greater Horn of Africa, including Kenya, Ethiopia and their neighbours, are likely to experience wetter-than-normal rainfall during the March–May (MAM) 2026 rainy season, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has warned in its latest regional climate outlook.

The Observatory’s forecast, released following the 72nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 72) held in Nairobi, signals both opportunities and risks for agriculture, water resources and disaster preparedness across the region.

According to ICPAC’s outlook, central and western Kenya and many parts of the Horn are likely to see above-average rainfall, a trend that extends to Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, South Sudan, northern Somalia and Djibouti.

The forecast quantifies a 45 % probability of wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the region, reinforcing expectations of a robust long rains season, which is vital for rain-fed agriculture and livestock production.

At the same time, some areas, particularly coastal Kenya, parts of Somalia and localised regions of Ethiopia and South Sudan, are projected to receive near-normal or even drier-than-normal rainfall.

This variability underscores how spatial differences in rain patterns can shape local outcomes, with certain zones potentially facing delayed onset or uneven distribution of rain even within an overall wetter season.

ICPAC also highlighted that dry spells may still occur in areas forecast to receive above-normal rain, while wet spells could affect regions expected to have near-normal or below-normal rainfall, complicating planning for farmers and local authorities.

In addition to the rainfall prognosis, the outlook indicates that warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across much of the Horn, particularly over Sudan, Djibouti, Tanzania and parts of Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya, raising concerns around heat stress for crops and water demand for communities.

The March–May long rains are critical for annual crop cycles, pasture regeneration and water storage. Above-normal rainfall can benefit farmers by boosting soil moisture and crop yields, especially in rain-dependent farming systems.

However, if intense rains concentrate over short periods, the risk of flooding, soil erosion and waterlogging increases, with potential losses in low-lying agricultural areas and along major river basins.