By Benadeta Mwaura - Reporter
Kenya, November 25, 2025 - At the heart of LAPSSET’s railway component is a plan for a standard-gauge railway that would stretch from Lamu through northern Kenya and eventually into Ethiopia and South Sudan. Originally projected to cost US$ 7.1 billion, this line is meant to be a backbone for regional integration, trade, and economic growth.
Yet, newer assessments bring into question whether funding and commitment match the scale. According to Kenya Railways, the total cost of LAPSSET’s railway could exceed KSh 2.4 trillion (approximately US$ 16 billion), more than double earlier forecasts. This discrepancy has sparked concern among economists and infrastructure experts.
A Lengthy Route With Big Stakes
The LAPSSET Authority maps show an ambitious route: Lamu → Isiolo → Moyale → Juba, with a branch to Addis Ababa. According to its own documentation, the railway corridor spans over 3,000 kilometres, making it one of the continent’s most strategic infrastructure investments. But building such a network across remote, rugged terrain will not be easy, and the scale of civil works needed remains daunting.
Security Threats Undercut Optimism
Security risks cast a long shadow over the project. Some transporters have warned that unless safety improves, they may refuse to use parts of the corridor. Reports cite truck drivers who are wary of attacks near certain stretches, especially in areas with historic insurgent activity. The risk not only raises insurance and operational costs but also threatens the projected traffic volumes the railway needs to justify its investment.
The Funding Puzzle: What Has Been Secured, and What Hasn't
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Despite political fanfare, the financial architecture of the LAPSSET railway remains uncertain. While development partners and potential private investors have expressed interest, clear commitments remain limited.
The African Development Bank’s inclusion of LAPSSET in its project portfolio is a positive sign, but the gap between pledged funds and the full budget is significant. Analysts argue that without a major financing push, potentially from both public and private sources, the railway may struggle to reach its full potential.
If realized, the LAPSSET railway could transform trade dynamics: goods from landlocked South Sudan and Ethiopia would have faster, cheaper access to Kenyan seaports; Kenyan exports could penetrate deeper into East Africa; and economic corridors could emerge along its path. For counties like Isiolo and Moyale, the railway could fuel job creation, spur development, and integrate remote pastoralist communities into national economies.
Yet, the benefits hinge on execution. Infrastructure delays or security lapses could derail more than just trains, they could undermine trust in regional integration, stalling long-term economic gains.
The LAPSSET railway remains one of Africa’s most ambitious transport visions, a line that could tie together Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Sudan in a web of trade, growth, and connectivity. But ambition alone is not enough. If the project is to live up to its promise, it requires more than just plans: it needs money, security, and trust.
