Life After Raila: Who Will Steer the ODM Ship to Stability?

Kenya, 20 October 2025 - As Kenya mourns the passing of Raila Amolo Odinga, attention within his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is turning quietly, but urgently, toward the question of succession.

For over two decades, ODM has been synonymous with Odinga himself: his charisma, his reformist ideals, and his fierce battles for democracy. But with his burial in Bondo now complete, the party faces its toughest test yet: how to move forward without its founding figure.

Behind the scenes, a constellation of leaders is emerging, some veterans, others rising stars, each hoping to define ODM’s next chapter.

Oburu Oginga: The Keeper of Stability

For now, ODM’s immediate future rests with Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga, who is Odinga’s elder brother and newly appointed Acting Party Leader. Seen as a stabilising figure, Oginga’s task is not to reinvent the movement, but to keep it steady while transition mechanisms take shape.

A veteran politician and one of the last surviving members of the Jaramogi Oginga Odinga dynasty, Oginga carries deep institutional memory. However, even his allies acknowledge that his tenure is likely temporary, a bridge between Odinga’s era and whatever comes next.

Hassan Joho: The Charismatic Coast Powerbroker

Hassan Ali Joho, former Mombasa Governor and ODM deputy leader and current Cabinet Secretary for Mining, Blue Economy and Maritime Affairs, is perhaps the most charismatic figure on the list. Known as “Sultan of Mombasa,” Joho has built a loyal following across the Coast and a reputation as one of the few politicians who can match Odinga’s flair for mass mobilisation.

Joho blends showmanship with business acumen and has strong links with the youth.

However, his prolonged absence from national politics since 2022 has raised questions about his readiness to take command.

Wycliffe Oparanya: The Strategist

Wycliffe Oparanya, former Kakamega governor and another former ODM deputy leader, is viewed as the calm strategist, more technocrat than crowd-puller. His experience in county governance and fiscal management gives him policy credibility that appeals to the party’s moderate wing.

Oparanya, however, has struggled to cut a national profile beyond Western Kenya.

Critics say his quiet demeanor may not inspire the emotional loyalty ODM supporters are accustomed to. Still, insiders describe him as one of the most organised leaders within the party structure.

James Orengo: The Veteran Statesman

A lawyer, reformist, and one of the architects of Kenya’s 2010 Constitution, James Orengo, is ODM’s elder statesman. As Siaya Governor and long-time Odinga confidant, he commands respect within the party’s old guard.

Orengo’s strength lies in his credibility, a man who’s been on the frontlines of Kenya’s democracy struggles for over four decades. Yet, age and temperament may work against him in a party now teeming with younger, restless leaders.

Still, few would count him out; his voice remains one of ODM’s moral compasses.

Gladys Wanga: The Groundbreaker

Among the potential successors, Gladys Wanga, Homa Bay Governor, represents both continuity and change. As the first woman elected to lead a Luo-majority county, she broke long-standing gender barriers within Raila’s stronghold.

Her loyalty to Odinga and her ability to maintain unity in Homa Bay have made her a symbol of ODM’s inclusivity. Analysts say her leadership could signal a generational and gender shift, a move that might refresh the party’s appeal.

Edwin Sifuna: The Organiser

The current ODM Secretary-General and Nairobi Senator, Edwin Sifuna, embodies the party’s institutional backbone. Articulate, media-savvy, and fiercely loyal, he has been ODM’s most consistent defender in Parliament and across TV panels.

Sifuna’s strength is his mastery of party machinery and his grasp of national issues. However, his blunt political style and public spats have occasionally polarised opinions, both within ODM and among coalition partners.

Still, for a party seeking to modernize its communication and reconnect with urban youth, Sifuna represents energy and organisational discipline.

John Mbadi: The Loyal Steward

A veteran of ODM politics, John Mbadi has spent nearly two decades serving as the party’s organisational anchor. As the long-serving national chairman and a trusted adviser to Odinga, Mbadi is known for his discipline, fiscal prudence, and calm authority in moments of political turbulence.

He represents the institutional backbone of ODM, the leader who understands both its history and its machinery. While not the loudest voice in rallies, Mbadi’s influence runs deep in strategy rooms and parliamentary corridors.

Analysts say his leadership style could appeal to members seeking stability and continuity rather than confrontation in the post-Raila era.

Simba Arati: The Firebrand Reformer

Simba Arati, the Kisii governor, has emerged as one of ODM’s most dynamic and fearless leaders. Known for his fiery speeches and street-level political instincts, Arati commands a strong following in the Gusii region and among the youth who see in him the courage to challenge entrenched systems.

His style, bold, populist, and unapologetically grassroots, echoes Odinga’s early political energy. Yet, his confrontational tone may also test ODM’s unity at a time when the party needs calm leadership.

Even so, many see Arati as part of ODM’s next generation, a leader capable of keeping the movement alive in Kenya’s fast-changing political landscape.

Junet Mohamed: The Insider

Junet Mohamed, MP for Suna East and National Assembly Minority Leader, is the quintessential insider. One of Odinga’s most trusted lieutenants, Junet has long been central to ODM’s campaign strategy and coalition negotiations.

His influence within the party machinery is undeniable, but critics argue that his close association with Odinga’s inner circle could limit his ability to appeal as a reform candidate.

Junet’s future depends on whether ODM wants continuity of Raila’s tight-knit style or a clean structural reset.

Babu Owino: The Populist Challenger

Then there’s Babu Owino, the fiery Embakasi East MP who thrives on controversy and charisma. Babu, recently admitted to the Bar as an advocate, has branded himself as the “youth’s voice,” often declaring his readiness to lead at any level.

His digital reach and populist tone resonate with younger voters who see him as fearless and relatable. But within ODM’s hierarchy, he remains an outsider, admired for his energy, yet distrusted by some veterans who prefer a steadier hand.

The Road Ahead

ODM’s next chapter will depend not only on who emerges as leader, but also on how the transition unfolds. The party’s constitution requires a National Delegates Convention to elect new officials, a process expected to begin once the mourning period ends.

Whether the torch passes to a loyal veteran or a bold newcomer, one thing is certain: [Raila] Odinga’s shadow will loom large over every conversation.

The question is not just who replaces him, but who can reinterpret his legacy for a new generation.

The opinion expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa