By Kepher Otieno - Reporter
Kenya, 21 January 2026 - The simmering succession battle within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has burst into the open, exposing generational tensions, competing power centres, and the delicate question of how — and by whom — Raila Odinga’s political legacy should be managed.
At the heart of the storm is Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, who has declared there will be “no reverse gear” on his quest to capture the party’s top leadership, even as rival factions consolidate around Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga on one end and Winnie Odinga, Raila’s daughter, who is leading an ODM pressure group pushing in the opposite direction.
“I can only go one way. I do not have reverse gears,” Owino said, insisting that nothing would force him to abandon his bid. “Some people may have different takes on me, but I also have my take on them.”
Owino’s defiance comes at a time when ODM is grappling with life after Raila’s continental ambitions, with the party struggling to define its internal order, authority, and transition pathway. His remarks, delivered during a vernacular radio interview, have reignited debate on whether youthful ambition is breathing new life into the party — or threatening to fracture it.
Leaning on opinion polls, Owino claims the political mood favours him. He cited survey data showing him ahead of potential rivals, arguing that the ODM grassroots want a new face to drive the party forward.
“The system points at me as the better option. The delegates at the National Delegates Conference will shock those already in power,” he said.
But while Owino’s confidence has electrified sections of the youth wing, political analysts warn that raw momentum without strategic restraint could destabilise the party.
Ben Ndukwe, a political analyst, says the ODM succession contest is less about popularity and more about managing transition without tearing the party apart.
“Young politicians must go slow in succession politics,” Ndukwe said.
“ODM is a party built on struggle, hierarchy, and negotiated consensus. You cannot wreck the boat from within or run parallel to the traditional establishment and expect unity.”
According to Ndukwe, history shows that successful political transitions in Kenya have often involved working closely with elders and pioneer political elites, not confronting them head-on.
“Young leaders have energy and ideas, but elders provide institutional memory and stability. The smartest path is collaboration, not confrontation,” he added.
Owino, however, dismisses claims that his bid is reckless or divisive. He argues that ODM’s leadership has systematically sidelined young voices, fuelling discontent within the party ranks.
“The youth are not recognised. Their voices are not heard, and that is what is slowly destroying ODM,” he said.
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In a move that has stirred controversy, Owino openly questioned the emerging dominance of the Odinga family in party affairs, accusing the leadership of converting ODM into inherited property rather than a democratic institution.
“ODM was built through sacrifice and struggle for over 20 years. Today, leadership is being passed around as if it were private property,” he said, referencing both Oburu and Winnie Odinga.
Yet Ndukwe cautions that such rhetoric, while popular among frustrated youth, risks deepening factionalism.
“When succession becomes personalised or framed as inheritance versus rebellion, the party loses focus,” he said.
“The youth should weigh their options carefully — reform from within, not rupture.”
Owino insists his intentions are national, not selfish. He says his ODM leadership bid is part of a long-term political journey, with the Nairobi governorship in 2027 as a stepping stone to the presidency in 2032.
“I am not anybody’s project. I am my own man, made by Kenyans,” Owino said, recounting how he rejected inducements to abandon Raila Odinga during the 2017 elections.
He portrays himself as a loyal soldier who stood with Raila through arrests, court battles, the BBI campaigns, and nationwide mobilisations — loyalty he says has not been reciprocated by the party elite.
Still, analysts say loyalty alone does not equal readiness to lead a party as complex as ODM.
“You don’t inherit a movement; you steward it,” Ndukwe said. “And stewardship requires patience, bridge-building, and respect for those who built the house before you rearrange the furniture.”
As ODM inches toward a decisive moment, the question remains whether the party can reconcile youthful ambition with elder authority — or whether the succession race will leave lasting scars.
For now, Babu Owino is charging ahead. But whether speed translates into victory — or derailment — may depend on how well the party balances change with continuity.
