By Mohamed Omar Bincof - Assistant Professor of Political Science Somali National University
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland on December 26, 2025, triggered a wave of condemnation from regional and international organizations, including the United Nations, African Union, IGAD, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the European Union, and the East African Community. Numerous states also rejected the move, reaffirming their support for Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity.
Beyond the immediate diplomatic backlash, the episode once again exposed deeper structural weaknesses within Somalia’s foreign policy framework. More critically, it revived a fundamental question that Somalia can no longer afford to avoid: does the country need a comprehensive reassessment of its foreign policy to navigate an increasingly complex and fluid regional environment?
From the perspective of neoclassical realism, Somalia’s foreign policy challenges are best understood through the interaction of two closely linked dimensions. The first relates to external pressures—regional power shifts, evolving alliance structures, and persistent security threats. The second concerns internal constraints, including limited state capacity, fragmented governance, leadership challenges, and chronic insecurity.
Somalia operates in a highly competitive regional arena shaped by Ethiopia, Kenya, Gulf states, and the wider geopolitics of the Red Sea. Yet its ability to respond effectively to these dynamics remains heavily constrained by internal vulnerabilities.
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has further complicated an already fragile regional security landscape. The move carries implications not only for Somalia’s sovereignty, but also for the strategic interests of key regional actors such as Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, all of whom have stakes in Red Sea security, maritime trade routes, and stability in the Horn of Africa. This episode illustrates how unilateral actions by external actors can disrupt regional equilibrium and intensify competition among powers with overlapping interests.
Somalia’s foreign policy, in practice, has remained largely reactive rather than strategic. This pattern reflects how domestic fragility limits the country’s capacity to anticipate, shape, or influence regional developments. To better capitalize on regional dynamics, Somalia must align its external diplomacy with its internal state-building agenda.
This requires the Federal Government of Somalia to articulate a clear, coherent foreign policy strategy—one that acknowledges shifting regional power balances and prioritizes cooperation with states whose security interests align with Somalia’s own.
Recent history offers several cautionary examples. Maritime disputes with Kenya, Ethiopia’s unlawful memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, and now Israel’s engagement with the region all point to a recurring pattern. External actors have repeatedly sought to exploit Somalia’s vulnerabilities by engaging directly with sub-national entities, undermining cohesion and encouraging fragmentation. Such practices threaten not only Somalia’s sovereignty, but also the long-term stability of the wider region.
The moment has therefore arrived for Somalia to strengthen its political and diplomatic posture. Internally, this demands greater cohesion and coordination among Somali political actors. Externally, it requires the deliberate construction of strategic partnerships. In this context, deeper cooperation with an emerging alignment involving Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia could help Somalia advance its long-term objectives, particularly in maritime security, counterterrorism, and economic integration.
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Failure to recalibrate Somalia’s foreign policy carries serious risks. It may weaken the country’s ability to deter secessionist ambitions and deepen political fragmentation. Unchecked external interference could exacerbate internal divisions, undermining national unity and state-building efforts. By contrast, a proactive, strategic, and regionally informed foreign policy would enhance Somalia’s ability to safeguard its sovereignty, discourage opportunistic interventions, and reassert itself as a credible regional actor.
Mogadishu therefore needs more than incremental diplomatic adjustments. What is required is a comprehensive strategic rethink. By synchronizing internal governance reforms with assertive regional engagement, Somalia can move from vulnerability toward strategic resilience. While current challenges are significant, they also present an opportunity for Somalia to redefine its external relations, reaffirm its sovereignty, and leverage regional dynamics in pursuit of its long-term national interests.
Finally, Somalia must anchor its foreign policy in professionalism, institutional integrity, and ethical conduct. This necessitates empowering qualified diplomatic professionals with proven competence and loyalty to national interests. Equally critical is the protection of foreign policy-related information, which should be treated as a core national security priority. Any breach undermines sovereignty, weakens strategic leverage, and erodes international credibility.
In a rapidly changing region, Somalia’s survival and relevance will depend not on reactive diplomacy, but on strategic clarity, internal coherence, and principled engagement with the world.
* Dr. Mohamed Omar Bincof
Ass. Professor of Political Science and Interntional Relations Somali National University.
Email: bincof@gmail.com
**The opinion expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa.
