Opinion -Security, Defense, and Foreign Policy: The Equation of Somalia’s Sovereignty

In a world increasingly shaped by power rivalries and eroding diplomatic norms, sovereignty is no longer preserved by declarations alone. For Somalia, prolonged fragility and renewed external pressures mean that survival depends on a clear strategic equation—one that aligns security, defense, and foreign policy within a unified national vision. Without this alignment, sovereignty becomes vulnerable rather than assured.

1. Global Turbulence and the New Strategic Environment

The global system is entering a period of profound turbulence. Over the past year, tensions among major powers have intensified as traditional diplomatic norms continue to erode. The growing alignment between China and Russia against the United States, rising disputes between the U.S. and NATO over strategic regions such as the Arctic and Greenland, U.S.–Israel military actions against Iran, escalating tensions over Taiwan between China and the United States, renewed clashes between India and Pakistan, Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory, expanding economic sanctions, seizures of strategic energy assets, and the detention of political leaders have collectively produced a climate of continuous global crisis. The modern international environment is not only unstable—it is structurally volatile.

2. Somalia’s Vulnerability in a Fragmenting World

For small and vulnerable states such as Somalia, this global instability is not abstract. It directly threatens national survival, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Somalia’s sovereignty has faced persistent challenges for decades, but recent developments have further intensified these pressures. Israel’s efforts to recognize Somaliland, the Ethiopia–Somaliland maritime agreement, the prolonged Kenya–Somalia maritime dispute, and the increasing involvement of the United Arab Emirates represent a consistent pattern of external interference in Somalia’s political independence and territorial integrity.

3. Somalia’s Strategic Response

Somalia’s response has been deliberate and proactive. The Federal Government of Somalia has pursued strategic diplomacy to strengthen national sovereignty and international standing. Defense and security agreements with Turkey, Egypt, Eritrea, and Djibouti have significantly enhanced Somalia’s regional credibility and strategic posture. These agreements are not symbolic gestures; they are concrete instruments designed to protect essential national interests.

The United Arab Emirates’ growing influence in reshaping port politics in the Red Sea and its involvement in Somaliland-related initiatives ultimately compelled Somalia to terminate all formal agreements with Abu Dhabi. This decision was not merely a diplomatic dispute—it was a decisive assertion of sovereign authority.

4. Strategic Lesson: Alignment Is Essential

Somalia’s experience reveals a central lesson of modern geopolitics: sovereignty cannot be secured by diplomacy alone, nor by military power alone. It requires the careful alignment of security policy, defense strategy, and foreign policy within a unified national vision.

Most effective states operate through a tiered strategic framework. The National Security Strategy (NSS) defines core national interests such as sovereignty, territorial integrity, economic stability, and national values. The National Defense Strategy (NDS) translates those political priorities into military requirements, including threat assessment, force allocation, and deployment decisions. The Foreign Policy Framework explains how diplomacy, alliances, and international partnerships advance the same national goals.

When these strategies are misaligned, states lose coherence. Diplomats commit to objectives militaries cannot support. Militaries prepare for threats diplomacy fails to manage. Defense budgets fund capabilities disconnected from real national priorities. Strategic dissonance becomes a vulnerability.