1. Global Turbulence and the New Strategic Environment
The global system is entering a period of profound turbulence. Over the past year, tensions among major powers have intensified as traditional diplomatic norms continue to erode. The growing alignment between China and Russia against the United States, rising disputes between the U.S. and NATO over strategic regions such as the Arctic and Greenland, U.S.–Israel military actions against Iran, escalating tensions over Taiwan between China and the United States, renewed clashes between India and Pakistan, Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory, expanding economic sanctions, seizures of strategic energy assets, and the detention of political leaders have collectively produced a climate of continuous global crisis. The modern international environment is not only unstable—it is structurally volatile.
2. Somalia’s Vulnerability in a Fragmenting World
For small and vulnerable states such as Somalia, this global instability is not abstract. It directly threatens national survival, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Somalia’s sovereignty has faced persistent challenges for decades, but recent developments have further intensified these pressures. Israel’s efforts to recognize Somaliland, the Ethiopia–Somaliland maritime agreement, the prolonged Kenya–Somalia maritime dispute, and the increasing involvement of the United Arab Emirates represent a consistent pattern of external interference in Somalia’s political independence and territorial integrity.
3. Somalia’s Strategic Response
Somalia’s response has been deliberate and proactive. The Federal Government of Somalia has pursued strategic diplomacy to strengthen national sovereignty and international standing. Defense and security agreements with Turkey, Egypt, Eritrea, and Djibouti have significantly enhanced Somalia’s regional credibility and strategic posture. These agreements are not symbolic gestures; they are concrete instruments designed to protect essential national interests.
The United Arab Emirates’ growing influence in reshaping port politics in the Red Sea and its involvement in Somaliland-related initiatives ultimately compelled Somalia to terminate all formal agreements with Abu Dhabi. This decision was not merely a diplomatic dispute—it was a decisive assertion of sovereign authority.
4. Strategic Lesson: Alignment Is Essential
Somalia’s experience reveals a central lesson of modern geopolitics: sovereignty cannot be secured by diplomacy alone, nor by military power alone. It requires the careful alignment of security policy, defense strategy, and foreign policy within a unified national vision.
Most effective states operate through a tiered strategic framework. The National Security Strategy (NSS) defines core national interests such as sovereignty, territorial integrity, economic stability, and national values. The National Defense Strategy (NDS) translates those political priorities into military requirements, including threat assessment, force allocation, and deployment decisions. The Foreign Policy Framework explains how diplomacy, alliances, and international partnerships advance the same national goals.
When these strategies are misaligned, states lose coherence. Diplomats commit to objectives militaries cannot support. Militaries prepare for threats diplomacy fails to manage. Defense budgets fund capabilities disconnected from real national priorities. Strategic dissonance becomes a vulnerability.
5. Ends, Ways, and Means: Somalia’s Strategic Imperative
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Every effective national strategy rests on a simple logic: objectives, techniques, and resources. The objective for Somalia is clear—preserving sovereignty and territorial integrity. The techniques must include strong regional alliances, integrated deterrence that combines diplomacy, defense, and economic tools, and carefully chosen defense partnerships. The resources must consist of defense investments aligned with actual threats, reliable maritime security capacity, cyber and intelligence assets, and a visible regional force posture that reinforces diplomatic commitments. If any of these elements is absent, the strategic structure weakens.
6. Lessons from Major Powers
Leading global powers already operate on this model. The United States aligns defense spending, military posture, and diplomacy with regional priorities. China integrates military power, economic development, and diplomacy through its Global Security Initiative. The United Kingdom fuses defense and diplomacy through NATO-centered strategy while restructuring its forces around technological dominance and long-term partnerships. Somalia must adopt the same discipline, adjusted to its own capacities and realities.
7. Strategy as Somalia’s Shield
In an era of geopolitical fragmentation and renewed power politics, Somalia’s sovereignty will not be protected by optimism or reaction. It will be protected by strategy. That strategy must originate from the highest level of government, expressed through a clear National Security Strategy, implemented through a coherent National Defense Strategy, and communicated through a unified Foreign Policy Framework.
Only through such alignment can Somalia transform vulnerability into resilience and uncertainty into national purpose. Somalia must ensure that its defense and security agreements—particularly with Turkey and Egypt—possess genuine operational credibility. These partnerships must tangibly strengthen defensive capacity, reinforce territorial integrity, and prevent hostile actors from exploiting Somalia’s borders or strategic spaces.
At the same time, Somalia should adopt a posture of measured deterrence, grounded in enhanced surveillance and intelligence. This includes coordinated military monitoring of critical infrastructure and sensitive zones, deployment of autonomous intelligence drones and aerial surveillance systems, and integrated command structures that allow ground forces to maintain continuous situational awareness while minimizing risk.
8. Conclusion
In a fragmented and competitive international system, Somalia’s sovereignty can only be safeguarded through strategic coherence. Aligning security, defense, and foreign policy is not a theoretical choice but a practical necessity to deter external interference, strengthen national resilience, and preserve territorial integrity. Without this alignment, sovereignty remains exposed; with it, Somalia gains the strategic credibility needed to navigate an increasingly unstable world.
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* Omar Ahmed Maw is Security Analyst and
PhD Candidate in Security Studies
Mount Kenya University (MKU)* The opinion expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa
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