How Women Aspirants Could Reshape Kisumu Governor Race

By Kepher Otieno - Reporter

Kenya, 10 December 2025 - The Kisumu gubernatorial race, already shaped by a crowded field of aspirants from Nyakach, Kisumu Central, and the western parts of the county, is taking on an even more complex dimension with the potential candidacies of Kisumu West MP Rozaah Buyu and Kisumu Woman Representative Ruth Odinga.

Far from being marginal players, these women bring not only regional and gender representation but also strategic leverage that could significantly alter the trajectory of the contest.

In a race that was expected to be dominated by male contenders such as Deputy Governor Mathew Owili, Joshua Oron, Aduma Owuor, and Jack Ranguma, the entry of women with strong local and county-wide profiles could transform what might have been a predictable contest into a genuinely competitive battle.

MP Buyu, hailing from Kisumu West, commands respect and loyalty in her home constituency and beyond. Her influence is particularly significant in Seme and other western wards, areas that male frontrunners may struggle to penetrate due to historical and regional loyalties.

If Buyu decides to contest independently, she could consolidate western votes and emerge as a kingmaker or even as a serious contender capable of challenging traditional power bases in Nyakach and central Kisumu.

Similarly, Ruth Odinga, leveraging both her family name and advocacy for women and youth, carries considerable political weight across the county. Her potential appeal stretches beyond her immediate constituency, drawing support from voters eager for generational change, gender inclusivity, and a break from the entrenched male-dominated political structures. In a race characterized by fragmented male support and regional rivalries, Ruth Odinga could capitalize on these dynamics to capture a significant cross-county coalition.

For male aspirants, these women represent both a challenge and an opportunity.

Deputy Governor Mathew Owili, for instance, benefits from strong Nyakach support and incumbency advantage, yet his path to victory could be constrained by the vote-splitting among fellow Nyakach aspirants, Owuor and Ojienda.

In such a scenario, a strategic alliance with Buyu or Ruth Odinga could not only neutralize the risks posed by vote division but also extend his appeal into western and women-dominated constituencies.

Joshua Oron, seeking to consolidate support across central Kisumu and among the Kano community, faces a similar calculus.

Pairing with a female running mate could allow him to transcend regional limitations, attracting votes from women and other underrepresented groups while counterbalancing Nyakach and western blocs.

Even former Governor Jack Ranguma or Senator Tom Ojienda could find that aligning with a strong female candidate enhances their competitiveness, broadening their appeal in constituencies where they are otherwise weak.

Yet the dynamics are not limited to male-female ticket considerations. Both Rozaah Buyu and Ruth Odinga could leverage their independent candidacies to trounce male opponents outright.

In a fragmented field, where votes are divided along home constituencies and ethnic loyalties, a woman who can consolidate cross-county support has the potential to emerge victorious with a plurality.

Buyu’s strength in Kisumu West and neighboring areas, coupled with strategic outreach to women and youth voters, could offset Owili’s Nyakach dominance.

Ruth Odinga’s county-wide recognition and ability to mobilize women’s networks could allow her to siphon votes from multiple male contenders, creating a pathway to outright victory even in the absence of traditional political machinery. In such a scenario, male aspirants would be forced to reconsider alliances, messaging, and ticket structures, as the conventional assumption of male dominance in county politics no longer holds.

Ultimately, the inclusion of women in the Kisumu gubernatorial contest elevates the stakes, transforming a free-for-all race into a multi-dimensional battle for both votes and legitimacy. Candidates now must navigate a landscape where regional loyalties, gender representation, and strategic coalition-building intersect.

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For Owili, Oron, Ranguma, and others, the challenge is not only to secure their traditional voter bases but also to either neutralise or partner with the women in the race.

For Buyu and Ruth Odinga, the race presents a historic opportunity to assert female leadership in a county historically dominated by male politics, with the potential to win outright or dictate terms of power-sharing. The implications of this dynamic are profound: the victor will not only claim the governorship but also redefine the role of women in Kisumu’s political hierarchy, signaling a shift in the county’s political culture that could resonate well beyond the next election cycle.

The potential entry of Rozaah Buyu and Ruth Odinga into the gubernotorial race has already triggered frantic behind-the-scenes negotiations across Kisumu’s political class.

Party nomination battles, long assumed to be a straight fight among the county’s established male aspirants, now become murkier and coalitions are hurriedly redrawn.

Sources within ODM, the dominant party in the region, indicate that both women command sizeable delegations at the grassroots and could easily force a direct primary against any male favourite.

Such a contest would expose the fragility of the “zoning” arrangements that have quietly governed Luo Nyanza politics for decades.

What makes their potential candidacies particularly disruptive is the shifting demography of the Kisumu electorate.

Women and youth, who now constitute the clear majority of registered voters, have grown increasingly impatient with recycled male leadership and unfulfilled promises on jobs, health, and education.

Ruth Odinga, in particular, has spent years cultivating women’s sacco networks and youth empowerment programmes, giving her a ready-made mobilisation machinery that most male aspirants lack.

Rozaah Buyu, meanwhile, enjoys near-unrivalled loyalty in the lakeshore wards of Kisumu West and Seme, areas that have historically complained of marginalisation by Nyakach and Kisumu Central elites.

Perhaps the most intriguing possibility is a “woman-plus-woman” ticket. Though unprecedented at gubernatorial level in Kenya, a Buyu–Odinga or Odinga–Buyu pairing would instantly shatter gender stereotypes and consolidate nwomen voters into a single bloc large enough to win outright on the first round.

Male aspirants privately concede that no existing male-male combination can match that geographic and demographic sweep.

What emerges from this analysis is the fact that the 2027 Kisumu gubernatorial election will no longer be decided solely on regional arithmetic or party loyalty.

Gender, generational change, and the demand for inclusive leadership have stormed centre-stage.

Whoever, regardless of gender, adapts fastest to this new reality will inherit the keys to the county headquarters on the shores of Lake Victoria.